Tuesday, December 15, 2009


world leaders are now in Copenhagen to decide if it's a good idea to spend a huge amount of money in order to limit the global increase in temperatures by less than 2 degrees Celsius.

they are planning to spend untold billions on a goal that's based on a bunch of "what if scenarios" that are far from certain. not to mention towards a future pay off that is much farther from certainty that the premises are.

even if the billions that they plan to save will be successful in limiting the global temperature rise by 2 degrees, there no evidence that this limitation will actually be beneficial or even worth the amount and effort spent.

some people always propose this analogy: that it's better to spend money now and buy insurance that watch your house burn and realize you haven't got protection.

unfortunately, that cannot be applied in the context of influencing climate change through financial intervention.

one, it is not correct that an increase in global temperature is analogous to a catastrophe such as burning one's house. in fact, there is evidence that global COOLING is the climactic event that would be disastrous for most life on earth.

two, it is far from certain that spending billions now will actually "insure" against a potential catastrophe if the rise in temperature exceed 2 degrees. the climate is such a complex system that reducing carbon emissions is only one of the million other factors that affect it. a single large volcanic eruption will cancel out years of CO2 savings from the so-called carbon emissions trading scheme.

in the same analogy as the fire insurance, it's the same as buying fire insurance that will not pay up if the fire is caused by lightning, electrical fault, children playing with fire, crazy neighbors, meteor impact and a million other reasons.

wouldn't it make much more sense if these bunch of band-wagon, publicity-seeking idiots spend the same amount of money on something that can certainly and actually help people right now?

i don't know, something like global poverty and hunger... or even smaller stuff, like controlling malaria.


Blogger michal said...

Ever considered running for public office? We need more of this vitriolic thoughtforms in the "palace" than those inane jingles of spending holidays on the streets and bathing in sewage water.

5:05 AM  

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Random thoughts on politics, social issues, money, finance, sex, humor, stupidity, or just about anything, of a hatemonger, an obsessive-compulsive, and a schizophrenic forced to live in a cramped and humid apartment.