the cycle of things

Ages ago, the whole area is underwater, and the calcite from the uncountable marine organisms settled and formed into layered sediment.

Then the sea levels fell, and the limestone that was formed stood mighty and strong.

Now the waters are coming back, slowly carving the rocks, and reclaiming the elements that once belonged to its depths.

the business of predicting the unpredictable

it's sad. and futile. and so fuckingly irresistible.
will i get rich? will my career be great 10 years from now? will my city be underwater within my lifetime?

that's why so many people do it, or attempt to do it -- even in the face of certain failure.
feng shui has the answer. so do tarot card experts. or financial analysts.

what's worse, an even larger number of people believe, or wish to believe, those whack-jobs.
yes, yes, please let my horoscope be true. my financial manager says so, so who am i to argue. it's in the stars, i'll win the lottery tomorrow.

it takes two to tango, huh? well, it also takes two to depict human stupidity.

~_~

tan cerca que tu mano sobre mi pecho es mía,
tan cerca que se cierran tus ojos con mi sueño
----Neruda, Soneto XVII

so intimate that your hand upon my chest is my hand,
so intimate that when I fall asleep it is your eyes that close

self-fulfilling prophecy and the idiocy of crowds

As the global financial crisis rages on, the phenomenon I call "idiocy of crowds" is on track towards a self-fulfilling prediction of an economic catastrophe of global scale and astronomical proportion.

Since I have so much faith on the predictability of the "idiocy of crowds", I will now make a prediction on how the global markets will look like one year from now (or March 2010):

The Dow Jones is at 4,500-5,000 range and the S&P500 is at 400-500 range.

Unemployment in the US is at more than 15%.

China is on recession (2 quarters of negative growth).

Japan is on depression.

The European Union is on depression.

Oil is now at less than $20 per barrel.

The G7 countries are now in deflation.

And now I will sit back and relax, and watch how the crowds will prove me right. If I happen to turn out right, I hope the CEOs who are reading this now, and are still CEOs in March 2010, will remember to offer me a lucrative job in long-term financial planning. Standard security notice fine print below.